Common questions.

Mol is a polymer price intelligence tool for professional buyers of PVC SG-5/K-67 importing into India. It delivers:

• A daily China ex-factory price nowcast
• A CFR Mundra landed cost breakdown with full duty waterfall
• An ADD/CVD policy tracker tied to CBIC notification status

Built for procurement managers, commodity traders, and import desks at polymer processors, traders, and distributors.

Mol covers PVC suspension resin, SG-5/K-67 grade, K-value 55–77, China origin. It does not cover PE, PP, PVC paste, CPVC, mass-polymerization PVC, or other origins (Korea, Japan, Taiwan, USA). Expansion to other grades and origins is on the roadmap — request access to discuss.

Mol uses a walk-forward backtest with a monthly refit cadence over 2020–2026. Each prediction uses only data strictly before the prediction date — no look-ahead leakage. The GBM is benchmarked against four baselines:

• Last-price (random walk)
• Futures-only
• Feedstock-spread
• 22-day moving average

Walk-forward OOS metrics — MAE, directional hit rate, and correlation — are published with every output.

Current walk-forward OOS results (not in-sample fits):

• MAE (all periods): ≈ 43.6 CNY/MT
• MAE (non-shock weeks): ≈ 30.6 CNY/MT
• Directional hit rate: 54.2%
• OOS correlation: 0.998
• Model confidence: 38% on current data

Shock weeks (policy events, tariff changes) inflate the overall MAE and are reported separately. All outputs are labeled "Model-only indicative price — not a transaction price."

Five publicly accessible sources:

• China PVC spot price (100ppi.com via akshare)
• DCE V futures close and volume
• ZC coking coal futures (carbide-route feedstock proxy)
• WTI crude oil (FRED)
• USD/CNY + USD/INR FX rates (akshare)

All sources are documented in the engine configuration and disclosed with every output. A licensed SunSirs or SCI99 price series would improve target data quality for production use.

CFR Mundra is the Cost and Freight price at Mundra port, India. Mol builds it from the China ex-factory CNY price:

• CNY → USD at indicative FX (≈ 7.25)
• + Freight (SCFI composite proxy + $250/TEU static lane basis)
• + BCD 7.5% on CFR
• + SWS 10% on BCD
• + IGST 18% on (CFR + BCD + SWS)

ADD/CVD is excluded until CBIC notification is confirmed. All assumptions are disclosed with the output.

As of 2026-06-08: No. The DGTR issued its Final Findings recommendation on 2025-08-14, recommending duties of $22–$284/MT by origin. Duty is not in force until the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) issues a formal customs notification — which is PENDING. Mol excludes ADD from the landed cost until that notification is confirmed; the anticipated duty range is shown separately as a scenario input. Consult a licensed customs broker for compliance decisions.

A licensed database (SunSirs, ICIS, Platts) gives you observed prices from transaction-level or survey-based sources. Mol models tomorrow's price from today's signals and wraps it in a complete duty waterfall and policy tracker.

The two are complementary: a database gives you the ground truth spot price; Mol gives you the procurement-decision context around it. Mol labels all output as "Model-only indicative" and does not compete with PRAs for contract reference pricing.

The engine outputs a structured JSON file (engine_output.json) consumable by any downstream system. The dashboard is a Next.js web app with a Supabase backend, accessible via browser. API access and webhook integrations are available as part of a custom engagement — request access to discuss.

No. Mol Assured is an assurance layer, not a marketplace — you bring the counterparty you already trade with. The deal runs a governed twelve-step lifecycle (intake to settlement) with hard gates: no verified counterparty, no quote lock; no payment condition, no dispatch; no quality acceptance, no settlement. The quote lock (“Pakka”) records and enforces the seller's commitment — quote-lock assurance, not a market guarantee.

The Bhav feed is free. Mol Assured is priced per deal: a small platform & documentation fee tiered by deal value, per-pillar assurance fees (quality, cargo, credit — the buyer picks the tier), a spread on protected settlement, and loser-pays inspection on disputes. Rates are confirmed at engagement while pillar partner contracts are finalised; Mol's own fees attract 18% GST.

Five, buyer-selected: Record (KYC, quote lock, documents, audit trail), Quality (CoA-matched acceptance, 48-hour dispute windows), Cargo (transit cover, e-POD shortfalls hold payment), Credit (NBFC-underwritten terms on multi-lender rails), and Full (every pillar on one deal). If a partner pillar is unavailable, the deal degrades to the next strongest tier and continues — it never freezes.

Every exception has a clock. A quality dispute raised inside the 48-hour window holds the disputed amount and gets a first response within four hours. A cargo shortfall against the e-POD holds payment automatically and opens the insurer pathway. Inspection and lab costs on a quality claim are paid by the losing side. Escalations sweep on a schedule — nothing waits on someone remembering.

As little as the deal needs. The buyer sees a verified counterparty, grade, and quality status — never the upstream manufacturer's identity (unless the trader consents) and never the trader's margin. Buyer credit data flows to lenders and nowhere else. The access-control matrix lives in the database as row-level security, every sensitive access writes an append-only audit row, and the rules are regression-tested in CI on every change.

Only after real volume. The index is built from cleared transactions — never surveys — and aggregates through three gates: an internal signal (≥3 cleared prints, ≥2 counterparties — never shown), an observed range (≥10 prints, ≥4 unrelated counterparties), and the published index (≥25 prints, ≥8 unrelated counterparties over a rolling 30 days). Below threshold you see a range or “insufficient data” — never an invented point price.

Rolling out. The daily bhav broadcast lands every morning, and deal events — dispatch, proof of delivery — alert the right party on WhatsApp, with the gates living in the authenticated web view. Opt-in, consent-recorded.

Mol is in closed beta. Fill in the pricing inquiry form and the team will respond within one business day.